[MacroPortfolio]

This topic will organize active trading outlook and discussion regarding the most traded pair, EUR/USD.

[MacroPortfolio]

April 22 - Europe Open

Yesterday has been mixed regarding the USD strength, as EUR/USD continues to stay in its short/medium term bear channel, along with AUD/USD, however GBP/USD making gains and NZD/USD continues its sideways action.

We will keep our strong bearish stand on the EUR/USD until a move above 1.3450s, where will cash in the short positions that we entered back around 1.36 - 1.3620s. Weak long could be taken after reaching above 1.3450s, however, we will only turn to strong long for EUR/USD with a move above 1.35.

There are bunch of manufacturing data coming from the Euro-Zone, which could provide a base for the pair. However, we are reaching the massively long term support levels of 1.30-1.32, and it would be advised to watch the action both during Euro and US sessions. A move below 1.30 would put further pressure to push the pair lower to 1.16 levels, last since around five years ago.

[MacroPortfolio]

Apr 23 - Europe Open

The quotes are now getting close to 1.32, and we are still holding our strong bearish stance. 1.30 - 1.32 area is very important, as it was not even breached during the heights of the financial crisis of '08-'09. Euro is on a shaky ground, and a move below 1.30 will certainly open way to 1.16.

Will cash the shorts with a move above 1.3350s, and will be looking for a weak, zig-zag up move, but will not be turning strong bullish anytime until move above 1.3500.

[MacroPortfolio]

Apr 28 - Europe Open

The volatility is beginning to come back into the markets. Following the S&P's degrade of Greece debt to "junk" status, USD and JPY gained, in an accelerating fashion as US markets began trading, pushing EUR/USD towards the much anticipated 1.30 - 1.32 level. Our cautious stance, and not going strong bullish on the pair despite moves close to 1.35, paid of well, as we currently stand strong bearish on the pair, possibly pushing it towards 1.30 in the days to come. A "strong bull" stance on EUR/USD seems far away at this point, as it would require a strong buying of EUR (selling of USD) to bring the pair towards 1.34 again.

[MacroPortfolio]

May 18 - US Close

Our view on EURUSD remains intact, and it is now becoming more apparent that the pair is poised to test 1.16-1.18 levels, last seen five years ago. However, to break lower than those levels, we need the second leg of the financial crisis to unfold, taking Dow sub 10K, all the way down to 6500 and lower, which will then bring already beaten down EURUSD to sub parity levels.

In the short run, yesterday's rise - which we were carrying light EURUSD longs to reach 1.24 levels, then turned to strong bearish after US close - completed at around US open today, and as you may have followed, US sessions saw EUR resuming its decline to reach below 1.22. We still think there is likely another selling round coming during the Asian sessions, and will wait to book most of today's profits then. Will decide whether to go slight long at Asian session, or just to book profits, and slim down our strong bearish longs, to just carry some shorts, being on the caution side that EU and/or US might buy back some of today's decline.

MacroPreneur Team

[MacroPortfolio]

May 19 - Asia Open

As we have outlined yesterday, Asia session witnessed continuation selling, however, bounced back around 50 pips, pausing around 1.2190s before Europe open. The bearish trend is continuing, and we will not go strong bull anytime soon, however, we are inclined towards seeing a bounce back in Europe and possibly in US sessions, hence booked our profits of more than 200 pips since the US Session close of yesterday, and going slight bull, for a possible move up. Don't expect this bounce to be anything of a bull trend, but just a reason to book the profits. Furthermore, the bounce in the Asian session seems to have eaten some portion of this bounce, anyways. Will need a move below 1.2090s to turn bearish during Europe and US tomorrow, which even we don't rule out, doesn't seem very probable.